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Lithuania ranks among the world’s top ten fastest-depopulating countries. Throughout over three decades of independence, its population has dramatically decreased by over 800,000 people. The current population stands at just 2.8 million, with over 20% of residents being above retirement age.
The main reasons behind Lithuania’s depopulation and ageing society are ongoing emigration to the West and a declining birth rate. In recent years, approximately 22,000 children have been born annually, while around 40,000 people die each year – a rate insufficient to ensure generational replacement. Long-term projections indicate that depopulation is likely to continue.
Although Lithuania’s government elites recognise depopulation as a serious threat, no policy focused on counteracting these negative trends has been implemented so far. Families report a lack of financial incentives, quality education for children, medical care, and family-oriented housing policies. Efforts to curb emigration have proven ineffective, partly due to insufficient support provided to returnees. A potential opportunity to reverse these demographic trends lies in welcoming labour migrants from outside the EU. Since 2020, the number of Ukrainians, Belarusians, and migrants from Central Asia settling in Lithuania has increased. However, implementing an effective integration policy to retain these foreign nationals in a way that benefits the country’s economy and society remains a challenge.
The depopulation trend
When Lithuania regained independence in 1991, its population stood at 3.706 million. Since then, this figure has steadily declined, stabilising at 2.794 million in 2019, before beginning a modest increase due to positive net migration.
As of 1 January 2024, the country’s population was 2.885 million. This represents a loss of 821,000 people over three decades, equivalent to the combined populations of Lithuania’s two largest cities, Vilnius and Kaunas. Alongside this decline, population density decreased from 59 people per square kilometre in 1990 to 46 in 2024. Lithuanians predominantly reside in urban areas, with the urban population percentage remaining largely unchanged at 68.5% today (compared to 68% in 1990).
More: osw.waw.pl